Key Takeaways
- Grayscale expects BTC to set a new all-time high in 2026.
- The firm says today’s price action is shaped more by institutional flows and macro trends than by halving cycles.
Grayscale believes Bitcoin may be gearing up for a major move in 2026, arguing that the old four-year cycle no longer reflects how the market behaves today.
In its latest report, Grayscale says the traditional boom-and-bust pattern tied to halvings is outdated. The company notes that BTC didn’t experience the usual pre-halving rally and that most new capital now comes through exchange-traded products and corporate adoption.
As the firm stated:
“We believe the four-year cycle thesis will prove to be incorrect, and that Bitcoin’s price will potentially make new highs next year.”
Bitcoin’s Volatility Still Fits Its Long-Term Pattern
Grayscale also pointed out that Bitcoin’s recent decline isn’t unusual. Historically, BTC tends to have around three pullbacks of 10% or more each year. The drawdown from early October through late November reached 32%, which is close to Bitcoin’s long-term average correction.
Meanwhile, Fundstrat’s Tom Lee has voiced a similar outlook, saying a fresh all-time high could arrive as early as January 2026, another signal that major players may be bracing for a strong recovery.
Could Policy Shifts Push Bitcoin Even Higher?
A few upcoming events could help fuel momentum. The Federal Reserve’s rate decision in December is one of them; a friendlier stance on interest rates could benefit Bitcoin in the short term.
There are also reports that Kevin Hassett may be the frontrunner to take over after Jerome Powell. Hassett is known for supporting digital assets and advocating for lower interest rates, both potentially bullish for BTC.
On the regulatory front, the Senate Agriculture Committee recently introduced a bipartisan draft outlining a new U.S. crypto market framework. If that bill progresses in 2025, analysts think it could invite more institutional participation, boosting enthusiasm around Grayscale and the wider crypto sector.
Disclaimer: This content does not constitute trading or investment recommendations. It’s essential to conduct your own research before purchasing any cryptocurrency or investing in any services.
