Arthur Hayes believes the Crypto market is stuck in what he calls a “no-trade zone,” pointing to macro uncertainty and geopolitical tension as the main reasons. The BitMEX co-founder says these forces are making it difficult to take strong positions, even as long-term sentiment remains constructive.
Two Major Forces Pressuring Crypto
Hayes highlights two developments shaping the current Crypto landscape. First, the rapid rise of AI-driven automation, which he argues could put pressure on jobs in advanced economies and trigger broader deflationary effects. Second, ongoing geopolitical friction involving the U.S. and Iran, particularly around the Strait of Hormuz, which adds uncertainty to global markets.
“I don’t know shit about war fighting…but I can read the dominant propaganda narratives and employ my AI agents to conduct simple maths using publicly available information.“
According to Hayes, these factors combined have created a low-conviction environment where traders are hesitant to make aggressive moves.
Bitcoin Outlook: Three Possible Paths
Despite the cautious tone, Hayes still sees upside potential for Crypto, especially Bitcoin. He outlines three scenarios:
- De-escalation scenario: If tensions cool, markets stabilize, but AI-driven economic pressure could still weaken consumer demand, forcing central banks to inject liquidity.
- Oil route disruption: If Iran maintains influence over key shipping routes, global demand for alternative settlement currencies could increase volatility across traditional and Crypto markets.
- Extended conflict: A prolonged escalation could disrupt energy supply, pushing central banks toward aggressive money printing, historically supportive for Bitcoin.
Under liquidity-driven conditions, Hayes believes Bitcoin could move into the $80,000–$90,000 range, though he prefers to wait for clearer signals from central banks before adding exposure.
Preference for Gold and HYPE
For now, Hayes says he’s more comfortable allocating capital to gold and the HYPE token. He expects upcoming developments around Hyperliquid to potentially drive demand and capture market share in prediction markets.
While Bitcoin has shown some relative strength recently, Hayes says he’s watching closely before shifting his stance. Until liquidity improves, he sees the broader Crypto market remaining range-bound with limited trading opportunities.
Disclaimer: This content does not constitute trading or investment recommendations. It’s essential to conduct your own research before purchasing any cryptocurrency or investing in any services.
