Is a December Recovery on the Table? Coinbase Sees Signs of a Crypto Rebound
The crypto market has spent the past few weeks trying to shake off a rough November, but some analysts believe the tide may be ready to turn. Coinbase’s institutional research team is hinting at a potential Recovery heading into December, pointing to improving liquidity conditions and a friendlier macro backdrop.
Why Coinbase Thinks a Crypto Recovery Is Possible
According to the firm’s latest market commentary shared on X, the Crypto landscape could stabilize this month as financial conditions loosen. Their team noted that expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut have surged, which historically boosts risk assets.
Markets are now pricing in roughly a 90% chance of a 25-basis-point cut at next week’s FOMC meeting. With the Fed already halting quantitative tightening on December 1, analysts believe the environment is gradually becoming more supportive for digital assets.
Coinbase’s team also highlighted that the much-talked-about “AI bubble” still hasn’t shown signs of collapsing. They argue that continued strength in the AI sector tends to spill over into broader tech-driven markets, giving Crypto an additional tailwind. On top of that, they view short-USD positions as appealing right now, reinforcing the case for risk-on sentiment.
Another point they referenced: a previous research note suggested that November weakness could set the stage for a positioning reset, with December acting as the trigger for a momentum shift. As they framed it, the market may be approaching the point where buyers start stepping back in.
More Signals Pointing Toward a Rebound
Market watchers outside Coinbase are echoing similar optimism. Analyst Ash Crypto shared on X that the Russell 2000 index is flashing one of the clearest signals for altcoin strength. According to him, the index is on the verge of testing, and potentially breaking, its all-time high from November 2021.
He explained that both the Russell 2000 and the overall altcoin market peaked at the same time in 2021, kicking off the long downtrend that followed through 2022 and 2023. Now that the Russell is retesting those levels, he believes a breakout would set the stage for a broader bull move, potentially leading into 2026.
Ash Crypto also noted that the relationship between U.S. small-cap stocks and altcoins has held up surprisingly well over multiple cycles. If the Russell pushes through resistance, he expects Ethereum and the rest of the altcoin market to respond quickly.
He added that the recent 10/10 flash crash wiped out excessive leverage, leaving the market in a state of fear, a setup he views as ideal for an aggressive upside move if buyers return. In his view, anyone watching for an altcoin rally should keep a close eye on how the Russell behaves in the coming weeks.
Disclaimer: This content does not constitute trading or investment recommendations. It’s essential to conduct your own research before purchasing any cryptocurrency or investing in any services.
